Dollar Rally Pushing On
The rally in the greenback continues midweek with the DXY back up at the $100 mark ahead of the keenly awaited ADP employment reading today. With public sector data still on hold amidst the continued US govt shutdown, private sector readings have taken on greater importance and today’s ADP print will be the first labour market data since the hawkish surprise we heard from the Fed last week. Despite cutting rates by a further .25% in line with expectations, Fed chair Powell signalled that a further cut in December was not a done deal, citing uncertainty and division among policymakers given the lack of data. On the back of those comments, pricing for a December cut has plunged from around 95% to around 70% currently, leading USD sharply higher as a result.
ADP Data in Focus
Looking ahead today, traders will now be waiting to see whether the ADP print pulls those easing expectations lower or revives them. The market is looking for a print of 31k, up from -32k prior. If seen, this should see easing expectations cooling further, leading USD to higher ground over the end of the week. If we see an upside surprise, this reaction will be more pronounced. On the other hand, if we get a downside surprise today, this could see easing expectations lifting, causing a squaring of late USD longs and a rebound in risk assets.
Technical Views
DXY
The breakout above the bear channel highs has seen the market breaking above the 99.15 level with price now testing the 100.39 level resistance. The channel break can be viewed as the break of a sloping inverse head & shoulders pattern and with momentum studies bullish, focus is on a break higher with 101.91 the next bull target.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.