Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key Levels 30/9/25
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Consolidated Recap of Goldman Sachs Positioning Metrics
Summary
1. CTA Corner:
- CTAs are currently positioned long $172 billion in global equities, with $66 billion allocated to U.S. equities.
- They are expected to act as small buyers in flat or upward market conditions but are likely to become asymmetric sellers in downward market scenarios.
2. GS Prime Brokerage (PB):
- The GS Equity Fundamental Long/Short Performance Estimate decreased by -0.78% from September 19 to September 25, compared to the MSCI World Total Return, which fell by -0.62%. This decline was driven by:
- Beta: -0.49%
- Alpha: -0.29% (attributed to losses on the long side)
- Notably, alpha has declined for two consecutive weeks.
- The GS Equity Systematic Long/Short Performance Estimate increased by +0.49% during the same period, driven by:
- Alpha: +0.38% (due to gains on the short side)
- Beta: +0.12%
3. Buybacks:
- Currently, 93% of companies are in a blackout period, expected to reach 95% by the end of the week.
- The estimated last day of the blackout window is October 24.
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### CTA Flows
Over the next 1 week:
- Flat Tape:
- Buyers: $4.56 billion ($1.16 billion into the U.S.)
- Up Tape:
- Buyers: $6.86 billion ($0.35 billion into the U.S.)
- Down Tape:
- Sellers: $28.03 billion ($6.75 billion out of the U.S.)
Over the next 1 month:
- Flat Tape:
- Buyers: $11.28 billion ($2.27 billion into the U.S.)
- Up Tape:
- Buyers: $18.72 billion ($0.84 billion into the U.S.)
- Down Tape:
- Sellers: $214.61 billion ($77.03 billion out of the U.S.)
### Key Pivot Levels for SPX
- Short Term: 6498
- Medium Term: 6225
- Long Term: 5833
This recap provides a comprehensive overview of the current positioning metrics and expected market flows, highlighting potential trading dynamics and sentiment indicators.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!