SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 11/11/25

WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS

***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/30

WEEKLY RANGE RES 6877/6629

NOV EOM STRADDLE 7054/6626

NOV MOPEX STRADDLE 6929/6399

DEC QOPEX STRADDLE 7054/6303

DAILY STRUCTURE – BALANCE - 6865/66655

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6820/30

DAILY RANGE RES 6916 SUP 6799

2 SIGMA RES 6970 SUP 6743

DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6790

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5

TRADES & TARGETS

LONG ON ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET WEEKLY > DAILY RANGE RES

SHORT ON TEST REJECT WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE

SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS

U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: SKEPTICISM 

S&P +154bps closing @ 6,832 w/ a of MOC +$115m to Buy. NDX +220bps @

25,611. R2K +127bps @ 2,463 and Dow +81bps @ 47,368. 17.9b shares traded across all US

equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg of 17.3b shares. VIX -7% @ 17.67, WTI Crude +72bps @

$60.18, US 10YR +1bp @ 4.11%, gold +268bps @ 4,117, dxy -3bps @ 99.57 and Bitcoin +1% @

$105.7k.

US stocks buoyed higher thanks to a snapback in momentum amidst Gov’t shutdown optimism, TSM reporting better monthly sales, and Jensen demand commentary re: more wafers for its Blackwell chips (GS High Beta Mo’ pair up ~5% today and up ~10% from mid-day Friday levels).

Convincing bounce for NDX off the 50-dma and now back within shouting distance of ATHs as the market tries to climb several ‘walls of worry’ into year-end. The Retail group substantial underperformer vs the market given the government re-opening is not an all-clear (consumer slowdown is not totally shutdown related). Elsewhere HC services were back to center ofcontroversy, with several Trump mentions over the weekend around the ACA subsidies and a negative comments around Health Insurers in general weighing on managed care and hospital stocks (OSCR -17%, CNC -8%, HCA -4%, THC -5%, etc).

Our floor was a 4 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels. Our floor finished +129bps to buy vs a 30-day avg of -148bps. Institutional flows very quiet with volumes tracking -12% vs 20d avg ahead of Veteran's Day tomorrow (Bond holiday). Asset Mgrs finished small net sellers with supply in tech bellwethers vs smaller demand in discretionary. HFs finished small (+$600m) net buyers driven by demand in macro expressions of tech vs smaller supply in managed care.

DERIVS: With today's rally - we initially saw vols get hit as the market relaxed post the news of an imminent resolution to the govt shutdown. However, as S&P spot continues to realize to the upside, we're seeing vols go bid again at today's highs of the session. S&P put-call skew is offered, unwinding some of the recent nerves from last week. (Lee Coppersmith) November is historically the second largest execution month of the year with 10% of annual spend. GS corporate execution desk estimates $1tr worth of executed buybacks in 2025 which equates to over $6B worth of daily vwap demand for each November trading day. (GS Flow of Funds)