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SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 13/10/25
***QUOTING ES1 CONTRACT FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6750/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6693 SUP 6411
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
As of Friday's market open, the SPX aggregate gamma flip zone is around 6700, with the gamma peak sitting near 6780. Since we're now in negative gamma territory (roughly 150–200 points away), we can expect increased volatility ahead. Dealers are likely to sell into market dips and buy during rallies, so brace yourself for some dynamic price action! Keep this in mind as you navigate the market.
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6705
WEEKLY VWAP BEARISH 6692
DAILY ONE TIME FRAMING LOWER - 6806
WEEKLY BALANCE - 6591/6809
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6371
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
Here’s a concise, well-structured summary and analysis of your market notes, highlighting key developments and themes since Friday’s surprising sell-off:
# Market Recap & Analysis
## 1. Friday’s Sell-Off: Context & Impact
- Surprise Factor: The sharp move was rare but not unprecedented; knee-jerk reactions rippled across asset classes.
- Rare Earths Spotlight: FT article suggests $1bn Pentagon demand; GSXGRARE basket up 26% in eight sessions—watch for further moves Monday.
- Global L/S Managers: Worst day since April (-1.2%), closing week at -1%, but still +11.6% YTD.
## 2. Hedge Fund Flows
- Net Selling US Equities: First time in almost two months.
- ETF vs. Singles: Heavy selling of macro products (ETFs), net buying of single stocks ("grossing up"). Friday saw one of the largest ETF-as-%-of-tape sessions in a year, indicating panic.
## 3. Shares Desk Themes
- Focus: AI deal announcements and "debasement" (currency/value erosion) themes.
- Investor Interest: Debasement call drew nearly 2,000 investors (vs. <100 a year ago), showing surging concern.
## 4. Volatility Space
- Record Option Volume: Highest ever session (~110mm contracts).
- Vol Panic: Vol panic index retraced to ~9/10; VIX and skew spiked.
- Client Demand: Implied volatility moves were met with demand, not just a function of high realized vol.
## 5. Volatility Market Dynamics
- Have vs. Have Nots:
- Long vol players managed gamma via delta hedges or position rolls.
- Short vol players chased convexity, grossed up at ETF level.
# GS Research Since Friday
- China Macro: Chinese Ministry of Commerce explained rare earths action, urged dialogue, and announced potential countermeasures—indicative of intent to engage with the US.
- China Economics: Recent events seen as efforts to gain leverage ahead of APEC talks; wider range of outcomes now possible.
- US Equity Ownership: Ben Snider’s charts show household aggregate in US equities at record highs, surpassing 2000 levels, as we enter a VIX 20+ environment.
## Key Takeaways
- Volatility remains elevated and is being actively traded, not just passively endured.
- Macro themes (China, rare earths, debasement) are driving investor attention and positioning.
- ETF flows signal panic, while single stock buying suggests selective risk-taking.
- GS research is focused on China-US negotiations and rare earths escalation.
- US household equity exposure is at historic highs—a potential risk factor as volatility picks up.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!