Daily Market Outlook, April 17, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, April 17, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Global risk assets are pausing after a strong multi-day rally that pushed several benchmarks to record highs. As the weekend approaches, investors are becoming more cautious, shifting their focus back to the potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire beyond next week. Overall sentiment remains constructive, but after a strong run, markets appear reluctant to take on additional risk without clearer signs that diplomacy is holding.
The MSCI All Country World Index is down 0.1% after a 10-session winning streak and a record close on Thursday. Weakness is more pronounced in Asia, where equities are down 0.9%, while European futures also point to a softer open. For now, the move looks more like consolidation than the start of a broader reversal, though it does suggest that some near-term momentum is fading after investors aggressively priced out geopolitical risk over the past two weeks.
The easing in Middle East tensions remains the main macro driver. As concerns over a wider conflict have receded, global equities have continued to unwind the war-related risk premium built up earlier in the escalation. Markets that were hit hardest, including Singapore, Taiwan, and China’s CSI 300, have recovered losses recorded after the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Developed markets have shown a similar trend, with investors moving back into cyclical and higher-beta assets as the chances of a long-lasting supply shock or wider regional issues have lessened.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 reached another record high on Thursday but is down 1% this morning, reflecting profit-taking after a sharp advance. This aligns with broader regional trading, where investors seem more focused on protecting gains over the weekend than extending exposure.
Cross-asset moves support that view. President Trump expressed confidence in achieving a more durable ceasefire with Iran, leading to a 1.2% decrease in Brent crude to $98.20 per barrel. The decline in oil suggests energy markets are also removing part of the geopolitical premium, though prices remain high enough to keep inflation concerns alive. Gold is slightly firmer near $4,800 per ounce, while US Treasuries and the Dollar Index are little changed, indicating there is no major shift into defensive assets.
In the UK, the dismissal of senior Foreign Office official Olly Robbins suggests the government is trying to redirect blame away from ministers and Starmer. While that may ease immediate political pressure, it is unlikely to settle concerns if investors interpret it as a sign of internal instability. Kalshi prediction markets now imply a 56% chance that Starmer will no longer be prime minister by year-end, up from 47%, pointing to rising domestic political risk. Even if US-Iran tensions remain contained, UK markets could still face added volatility from local political developments.
Next week, the main global event is Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday. It could matter for rates if he challenges the market’s tendency to view the energy shock mainly through an inflation lens. Investors will listen closely for any support for balance sheet contraction and AI-driven productivity as reasons to justify a lower policy rate path. Lagarde's panel on Wednesday will stand out before the blackout periods begin, limiting central bank commentary.
The UK data calendar is much busier, featuring labour market data on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, public finances and DMO remittances on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. Among these, March CPI may have the biggest market impact, as higher fuel prices could widen the gap between headline and core inflation. Globally, April flash PMIs on Thursday may be the most important macro release, offering a timely read on whether weaker sentiment is starting to weigh on actual output and whether rising input costs are feeding more clearly into final prices.
From a tactical perspective, the main question is whether the current situation is just a healthy pause after an overstretched rally or the start of a deeper pullback if ceasefire talks fail. For now, the evidence still favours consolidation over reversal. After removing much of the conflict premium, equities have rallied strongly, improved positioning, and increased market exposure to headline risk. Further upside will likely require confirmation that the ceasefire is extended and that negotiations remain constructive.
Overnight Headlines
Economic Data: New Zealand's retail card spending rose 0.7% in March, down from 1.4%. Total card spending increased by 1.3%, slightly up from 1.1%. Food prices fell by 0.6%.
Government/Central Banks:G7 finance ministers emphasise the need to mitigate the Middle East war's impact on the global economy. Tensions rise over the Hormuz Strait, with Australia rejecting disputes with Trump. The BoJ's Ueda warns of price risks amid economic uncertainties. Trump announces a 10-day ceasefire in Israel and Lebanon, while discussions with Iran may occur soon. The IMF engages with Venezuela, and Europe navigates Trump's reactions at the Hormuz summit.
Fixed Income: Record high foreign trading of Chinese bonds via Hong Kong; U.S. Treasury yields rise on peace expectations.
Foreign Exchange: The dollar-yen pair sees minor gains, while the Australian dollar holds steady amid modest dollar strength.
Commodities/Energy: China plans to commission seven nuclear reactors by 2026. The Iran conflict prompts Asia to reconsider LNG investments, and oil recovery may take two years post-war.
Equities: Japanese doctors express concerns over medical supply threats due to the Iran war. Netflix reports strong revenue, while OpenAI intensifies competition with Google in drug discovery. Uber commits $10 billion to robotaxis, and Sequoia raises $7 billion for major investments.
Crypto: Bitcoin tests $76K resistance amid rising inflows indicating potential selling pressure.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1600 (EU1.34b), 1.1500 (EU1.26b), 1.1750 (EU1.0b)
AUD/USD: 0.7125 (AUD477.1m), 0.6400 (AUD330m)
USD/JPY: 154.00 ($601m), 165.00 ($586.2m), 159.00 ($446.2m)
USD/BRL: 5.1700 ($2.06b), 5.4825 ($734.3m), 5.0750 ($549.3m)
USD/CAD: 1.4000 ($478.6m), 1.3630 ($390m), 1.3600 ($373.5m)
GBP/USD: 1.3000 (GBP441.8m), 1.3200 (GBP405.8m)
USD/CNY: 6.7800 ($300m)
USD/MXN: 17.50 ($405.7m), 17.00 ($350.1m)
CFTC Positions as of April 10, 2026:
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 12,328 contracts to 228,259
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 27,168 contracts to 939,849
Speculators trim CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,911 contracts to 1,552,929
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 39,561 contracts to 823,624
Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 74,691 contracts to 1,712,015
Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 7,746 contracts to 260,383
Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 27,363 contracts to 58,996
Bitcoin net long position is 2,540 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -30,694 contracts
British pound net short position is -56,354 contracts
Euro net short position is -7,541 contracts
The net short position in Japanese yen is -93,742 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6900 Target 7200
Below 6850 Target 6785
DXY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 100 Target 100.50
Below 99.50 Target 97.50
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1740 Target 1.19
Below 1.17 Target 1.1650
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.3475 Target 1.37
Below 1.34 Target 1.3290
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 158.50 Target 161
Below 158 Target 157.50
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4600 Target 5000
Below 4500 Target 4350
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 72k Target 78.5k
Below 70k Target 67k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!