S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 6/10/26
S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 6/10/26
***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS
MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400
MONTHLY RANGE RES 7965 SUP 7634
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7670/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 7926/16 SUP 7683/93
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7770/80
GLOBEX RANGE RES 7845/66 SUP 7803/7782
GAMMA FLIP 7737
DELTA FLIP 7803
CALL WALLS 7803/45
PUT WALLS 7740/17
UNFILLED GAPS 7541
DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7778
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE 7848 - 7575
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7
A VVIX/VIX ratio of ~5.51 is in the historical sweet spot, indicating stable options pricing with no immediate signs of panic or severe volatility-market stress.
PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM OF THE DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES > ATH’S
***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.02 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.
JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.
DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]
Notes On Structure Implications
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS
EQUITY & VOL DESK BRIEFING: BRAZIL ELECTION SURPRISE & M&A CATALYSTS
Author: Ariana Contessa (Goldman Sachs Vice President, FICC & Equities)
Date: October 5, 2026
THE TAKE: LATAM RELIEF SQUEEZE & M&A RETURN OVERCOME LOW NET LEVERAGE
US equity benchmarks closed firmly in the green to start the week (S&P 500 +66 bps to 7,773; Nasdaq-100 +87 bps to 31,076), though overall trading activity remained muted (TMT volumes down 10–20% vs. 10-day averages). The primary macro driver was the Brazilian election outcome—where Flávio Bolsonaro (47.0%) outperformed expectations against Lula (45.2%)—triggering a massive +13% surge in the MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) as short positions were violently squeezed.
Concurrently, "Merger Monday" deal flow returned with force, featuring over $33 billion in announced or near-final M&A transactions. Despite index strength, institutional chasing remains muted; however, US L/S net leverage sits at its 2nd percentile low over a 5-year lookback (lowest since April 2025's "Liberation Day"). As benchmarks push higher, extremely light net positioning creates strong mechanical pressure for institutional de-risking and performance chasing into Q4 earnings.
MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN
S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,773.00 (+0.66%) | MOC $5.0B to SELL | VIX up +1.31% to 15.51 | Remaining weekly straddle priced at 90 bps
Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 31,076.00 (+0.87%) | Led higher by tech buying and M&A tailwinds
Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,853.00 (+0.73%) | Small-caps tracked broader risk-on sentiment
Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,267.00 (+0.18%) | Modest gains lagging tech and growth benchmarks
US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 5.300% (+0.3 bps) | Pinned at 19-year cycle highs
WTI Crude: Price at $89.20 (-2.10%) | Eased back below $90/bbl
Gold: Price at $4,138.00 (-0.06%) | Flat close as USD Index (DXY 102.15) held gains
Bitcoin: Price at $85,660.00 (-0.15%) | Range-bound action
CBOE VIX: Closed at 15.51 (+1.31%) | Spot-up / vol-up dynamic across indices; short-dated SPX skew crushed
M&A DASHBOARD & SINGLE-STOCK DRIVERS
Schneider Electric / PTX ($22.6B): Schneider Electric announced an agreement to acquire PTX for $22.6 billion, bolstering industrial automation and energy infrastructure capabilities.
C.H. Robinson / RXO ($5.8B): C.H. Robinson announced the acquisition of freight broker RXO for $5.8 billion to consolidate logistics market share.
McKesson / CD&R / Option Care Health ($5.0B+): Post-market Financial Times reports indicated McKesson and CD&R are near a $5B+ deal to acquire infusion services provider Option Care Health (OPCH +20% AH).
LATAM & EWZ POSITIONING SQUEEZE
Brazilian Election Takeaway: First-round election results showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading with 47.0% against Lula’s 45.2%, a result substantially more market-friendly than consensus expectations.
EWZ Flow Action: EWZ jumped +13%, driven by an aggressive upside call chase in short-dated tenors alongside profit monetization. Desk noted broad Hedge Fund demand in high-beta pockets versus Long-Only supply.
INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS & DERIVATIVES COLOR
Desk Activity (4/10 Rating):
Flow skews remained benign across the floor. Asset Managers (LOs) finished as slight net sellers (driven by macro product unwinds), while Hedge Funds were slight net buyers (concentrated in Tech).
Net Leverage Asymmetry: US fundamental Long/Short net leverage sits near 5-year lows at the 2nd percentile (approaching levels last seen around April 2025 "Liberation Day"), presenting an asymmetric upside squeeze setup if indices continue to grind higher.
Derivatives & Volatility Surface:
Spot-Up / Vol-Up Chase: Indices experienced simultaneous spot and volatility buying, while short-dated SPX skew was heavily crushed.
VIX Downside Trade: Desk observed large vol sellers out of the gate, including a customer purchase of 20k Nov 19/17 Put Spreads in VIX.
Q4 Earnings Expressions: Desk continues to favor QQQ optionality into tech earnings. In semiconductors, the desk favors 1-month Call Spreads in Applied Materials (AMAT) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) to capitalize on elevated call skew (83rd percentile for AMAT).
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!